A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
