Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
