🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest improvement receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still